Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
