A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
